HLSKEY This product covers the Florida Keys **TROPICAL STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MIDDLE KEYS** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Monroe Lower Keys and Monroe Middle Keys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 700 miles south-southeast of Key West FL - 15.5N 76.7W - Storm Intensity 45 mph - Movement North or 10 degrees at 9 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ At 400 PM EST, the center of newly named Tropical Storm Rafael was located in the Caribbean Sea about 175 miles south of Jamaica. Rafael is moving toward the north near 9 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to begin later tonight and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica late tonight, be near or over the Cayman Islands as a hurricane late Tuesday, and approach Cuba on Wednesday. There is moderate confidence in a forecast track across western Cuba into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, passing to the southwest and west of the Florida Keys. Due to uncertainty in the exact structure of the storm, there remains some uncertainty in the level of potential impacts on the Florida Keys. The potential for sustained tropical storm force winds has increased from the previous advisory, with chances now just below three in five at Key West, and just below one in two at Marathon and Layton. Tropical storm force winds will most likely arrive Wednesday morning. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Wednesday night, including a few tornadoes. The most potent thundery squalls will be capable of localized wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Saltwater flooding for oceanside portions of the Florida Keys could reach up to 2 feet above mean higher high water on Wednesday through Wednesday evening, or about a foot higher than recent high tides. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Prepare for dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across Lower and Middle Keys. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages. * TORNADOES: Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power and communications disruptions. - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Refer to monroecountyem.com for the latest information. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies kit and take necessary actions to protect your family and secure your home or business. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, plan to move to safe shelter. When securing your property, outside preparations should be concluded on Tuesday before conditions deteriorate. The onset of strong gusty winds or flooding can cause certain preparedness activities to become unsafe. There is a threat from tornadoes with this storm. Have multiple ways to receive Tornado Warnings. Be ready to shelter quickly. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see monroecountyem.com - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Key West FL around 11 PM EST, or sooner if conditions warrant.
