HLSKEY This product covers the Florida Keys **TROPICAL STORM WIND GUSTS ONGOING ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and Monroe Middle Keys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 140 miles west-southwest of Key West FL or about 180 miles west-southwest of Marathon FL - 23.5N 83.6W - Storm Intensity 105 mph - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 13 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ At 1000 PM EST, the center of Hurricane Rafael was located about 80 miles west-northwest of Havana. Rafael just emerged into the southeastern Gulf and a northwestward motion is expected to continue overnight. A turn to the west-northwest is expected Thursday over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph with occasional gusts approaching 40 mph will continue over the next few hours in the Lower Keys. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms tonight, including the potential for a few tornadoes. The most potent thundery squalls will be capable of localized wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph. The threat for severe weather and gusty winds will gradually wane overnight as Rafael continues to move to the northwest and away from the Florida Keys. Saltwater flooding for oceanside portions of the Florida Keys could reach up to 2 feet above mean higher high water tonight, or about a foot higher than recent high tides. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Potential impacts from the main wind event are now unfolding across the Lower Keys. Remain well sheltered from hazardous wind having possible limited impacts. If realized, these impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. Elsewhere across the Florida Keys, little to no impact is anticipated. * SURGE: Potential impacts from the main surge event will unfold during the early morning high tides. If realized, these impacts include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Potential impacts from tornadoes are still unfolding across the Lower Keys. If realized, these impacts include: - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery- powered radio, charged cell phone and flashlight handy. Keep your cell phone charged and in power-saving mode. If you lose power, use it sparingly and mainly for personal emergencies and check-ins. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, quickly move to the safest place within your shelter. Protect your head and body. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see monroecountyem.com NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Key West FL around 5 AM EST, or sooner if conditions warrant.
