ESFBIS A substantial series of rainfall events will be spreading across North Dakota through the remainder of the week. Here is a table of select cities and probabilities for select amounts of precipitation. Table 1. Probability of rainfall amounts through May 16th. Probability Probability Probability City of 2 inches of 3 inches of 4 inches ---------------------------------------------------------- Crosby 76 51 28 Williston 68 36 9 Bottineau 70 33 4 Minot 97 90 69 Garrison 89 72 47 Washburn 88 70 43 Dickinson 77 51 21 Bowman 50 19 4 Bismarck 78 46 11 Linton 64 28 6 Jamestown 23 3 0 Rugby 74 34 3 As shown in the above probabilities, the axis for higher rainfall amounts generally follows U.S. Highway 83 from Bismarck up through Minot. Since the highest likelihood for training thunderstorms is limited to the southern half of the state, this suggests the higher probability for localized minor flooding would be from McLean county and south through Mercer, Oliver, Morton, Grant, Sioux, Emmons, Burleigh and Sheridan counties. In general, rivers and streams west of the Missouri River (Cedar Creek, Cannonball, Heart, and Knife) will receive the highest rainfall totals in the lower portion of their respective watersheds. This will help minimize the risk of any forecast location from exceeding its flood stage. However, a few watersheds will bear the brunt of the heaviest rainfall over their entirety. These include, but are not limited to, Sweet Briar, Square Butte and Otter creeks in Morton County along with Beaver Creek in Emmons county, Apple Creek in Burleigh County, and Painted Woods Creek in McLean County. People along these and other smaller streams should be wary of the potential for rising water over the remainder of the week. Farther north, Minot and most of the Souris River Basin will also receive significant rainfall over the coming days. However, due to the very limited risk of training thunderstorms in the northern portion of the state, the creeks and coulees will experience rising water levels, but the rainfall will be spread out over a long enough duration to minimize runoff given the abnormally dry soils. In short, while there is always at least some risk of problematic high water with systems that produce as much rain as in the current forecast, the finer details suggest that wet period will be much more beneficial than a risk. Nonetheless, the expected totals and the possibility of training thunderstorms will bear keeping an eye on the water for those who live near small streams across a good portion of North Dakota.
