ESFTAE As an anomalously moist environment surges northward from Tropical Storm Rafael into the southeast US, locally heavy rainfall will become possible Wednesday through Thursday, primarily in southwest Georgia. This will interact with a trough, providing a focus for heavier rainfall to develop, but the exact position remains uncertain. Currently, the most likely rainfall totals are around 1.5 to 3 inches across southwest Georgia. However, there is about a 30 to 40 percent chance of rainfall exceeding 3 inches and about a 20 to 30 percent chance of exceeding 6 inches. These probabilities are highest around the Albany, Tifton, and Fitzgerald areas. Current flash flood guidance is about 3.5 inches in 1 hour or 5 inches in 6 hours across southwest Georgia. In addition, given the lack of any meaningful rainfall over the last month, the ground has likely hardened in spots, making these areas more prone to excessive runoff. Thus, the threat of flash flooding will likely come from high rainfall rates, which are harder to pin down on exact location. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined much of southwest Georgia in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) on Wednesday, meaning there is at least a 15 percent of exceeding flash flood guidance. That risk decreases to Marginal (level 1 of 4) on Thursday. Rivers are running low at the moment given the very dry October. It will take over 7 inches of rain for the rivers to get close to minor flood, which is unlikely at this point. Chances for rivers in southwest Georgia to reach minor flood are generally less than 5 percent at this time. If confidence in where the heaviest rainfall sets up or if the chances for heavy rainfall increases, a Flood Watch may be needed for parts of the area. Keep an eye on the latest forecasts tonight into Wednesday morning.
