ESFTAE As Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine approaches the forecast area later this week, widespread moderate to heavy rain is expected across southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. The current forecast calls for 3 to 6 inches of rain likely across the area with localized totals as high as 10 inches possible. This could lead to some flash flooding, some of which could be locally considerable. Antecedent conditions are rather wet along and west of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River system. Many of these areas are 3 to 7 inches above normal over the last 2 weeks. Farther east, rainfall has generally been near or below normal. Given the saturated soils over the western areas, these areas may be more susceptible to flash flooding. Urban and poor drainage areas would also be susceptible. The Weather Prediction Center has outlined most of our forecast area in a Moderate Risk for Excessive Rainfall, which is a level 3 of 4. This is highly unusual given we are 3 to 4 days from the event, which highlights the threat and the confidence of the heavy rainfall potential. A Flood Watch will likely be needed Tuesday afternoon or early Wednesday morning for much of the area. On the riverine front, at least minor river flooding is possible at many of our forecast points given the current rainfall forecast. In areas that exceed 6 inches of rain, locally moderate river flooding would be possible. As a reminder, river forecasts only account for the next 48 hours of rainfall. Thus, current river forecasts do not account for any rainfall from the tropical system at this point. Stay tuned to later updates.
