ESFBRO The Brownsville Texas National Weather Service Office has implemented Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for the Los Olmos Creek basin in deep South Texas. AHPS enables the National Weather Service to provide long-range probabilistic outlooks. This service is also available on the internet. In the table below. the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the chance the creek could rise above the listed stage levels in the next 90 days. Example: The Los Olmos Creek near Falfurrias has a flood stage of 11 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the Falfurrias forecast point will rise above 2.5 feet during the next 90 days. Chance of Exceeding Stages at Specific Locations Valid [07/02/2025 - 09/30/2025] Location FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% -------- ----- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- Los Olmos Creek Falfurrias 11.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.6 4.2 5.3 This long-range probabilistic outlook contains numbers that are calculated using multiple scenarios from 50 years of historical climatological and stream flow data. These numbers also take into account current conditions of the creek and soil moisture. By providing the complete range of probabilistic numbers. the level of risk associated with the long-range planning decisions can be determined. Additional supportive data and explanation are available on the internet at: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/long_range.php?wfo=bro Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued around the third Thursday of every month.
