HLSKEY This product covers the Florida Keys **TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTH FROM THE CUBAN COAST** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Monroe Lower Keys and Monroe Middle Keys * STORM INFORMATION: - About 220 miles south of Key West FL - 21.4N 81.9W - Storm Intensity 110 mph - Movement Northwest or 320 degrees at 14 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ At 1000 AM EST, the center of Hurricane Rafael was located in the Caribbean Sea about 130 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba. Rafael will move northwestward and strengthen steadily for the next several hours. Rafael is expected to make landfall near western Cuba late this afternoon as a major hurricane, followed by a turn to the west- northwest tonight and Thursday over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico. There is high confidence in the forecast track, although there remains some uncertainty in the exact structure and size of the storm due to interactions with land. Tropical storm force winds will most likely arrive this evening including sustained winds 30 to 35 mph and occasional gusts 40 to 45 mph, especially for areas west of the Channel 5 Bridge. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms today and tonight, including the potential for a few tornadoes. The most potent thundery squalls will be capable of localized wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph. Saltwater flooding for oceanside portions of the Florida Keys could reach up to 2 feet above mean higher high water tonight, or about a foot higher than recent high tides. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the Florida Keys. Potential impacts include: - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about. - Many medium to large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over. - Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways. - Scattered power and communications outages. * SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across the Atlantic side communities of the Florida Keys. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of roads and parking lots inundated by surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. - Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. * TORNADOES: Protect against a dangerous tornado event having possible significant impacts across the Lower Keys. Potential impacts include: - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the execution of emergency plans during tropical events. - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few spots of considerable damage, power loss, and communications failures. - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll. Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts across the Middle and Upper Keys. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * EVACUATIONS: Follow the advice of local officials. Refer to monroecountyem.com for the latest information. * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. Keep cell phones well charged. Cell phone chargers for automobiles can be helpful, but be aware of your risk for deadly carbon monoxide poisoning if your car is left idling in a garage or other poorly ventilated area. If a Tornado Warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not prone to flooding. If driving, scan the roadside for quick shelter options. If in a place that is vulnerable to high wind, such as near large trees, a manufactured home, or on a boat, consider moving to a safer shelter before the onset of strong winds or flooding. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For Monroe County Emergency Management Information, see monroecountyem.com NEXT UPDATE ----------- The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Key West FL around 4 AM EST, or sooner if conditions warrant.
