ESFMFL The long range models are showing a disturbance over the Northwest Carribean Sea to move northwest into the Gulf of Mexico through middle of next week. The National Hurricane Center is giving this disturbance a 30 percent chance of development through middle of next week. There is also a low level trough that will remain over Central Florida this weekend into early next week. This weather pattern will allow for deep tropical moisture to work into South Florida late this weekend and remain over South Florida through most of next week. The PWAT values are forecast to be in the 2.2 to 2.6 range over South Florida during this time frame which is near the maximum value for this time of year. This can lead to heavy rainfall across South Florida late this weekend into next week with any showers or thunderstorms that do develop. Given the uncertainty with the development of the tropical disturbance currently monitored by the National Hurricane Center, there is still the potential for significant forecast changes regarding potential rainfall totals, time-frame of greatest impacts as far as rainfall, and the locations that could see the highest amounts. Users are reminded to follow reliable sources such as the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center over the weekend into next week.
