A weak tropical disturbance, known as JTWC's Invest 96W, is centered just northwest of Koror near 8N133E. This system is expected to continue to move northwest overnight, exiting the region later tonight or Wednesday. 96W will continue to bring deep tropical moisture into the region which, combined with strengthening trade-wind convergence in its wake, is expected to continue to generate numerous heavy showers and some thunderstorms across Yap, and scattered heavy showers across Palau tonight. This rain event will continue to produce a risk for flooding impacts. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain may fall at Palau and Yap overnight. There remains high uncertainty in the coverage and timing of showers due to the developing system being poorly organized, which in turn has skewed the QPF accumulations lower than the usual among deterministic model guidance. Meanwhile, the ensembles continue to indicate good potentials within the general vicinity of Yap Proper and near Palau, which is more in line with predicted rainfall amounts using satellite imagery. The risk of mudslides remains low for the duration of the rain event, unless rain rates and duration change substantially overnight. Showers are not expected to taper down significantly starting Wednesday, after which 96W will be farther away and NET activity is expected to decrease, allowing weather to gradually improve. This will be the last issuance of the Special Weather Statement for Palau and Yap regarding this weather event.
