Two disturbances, Invests 97W and 98W, are expected to converge somewhere near or SE of Guam tonight or Wed before slowly becoming better organized and heading N or NW. While showers and thunderstorms will cluster near 97W and the eventual 97W-98W merger, drier conditions are likely to spread in to the Marianas from the north. By late week, as the merged disturbance becomes better organized and heads N or NW, the potential for heavy rains and strong gusty winds will remain highly dependent on the exact path of the disturbance with a sharp gradient in worsened conditions aligned near the islands. WHAT WE KNOW: The highest likelihood for stronger winds looks to be focused along the eastern periphery of the merged circulation. Locally heavy rainfall will also develop near the center, then will gradually extend south to southwest as the circulation and ensuing southwest monsoon develops late week WHAT REMAINS UNANSWERED: While model guidance continues to point to the eventual merger of the two disturbances southeast of Guam, they still have not yet converged on the timing, eventual track north or northwest, rate of development, or the expanse of impactful winds and rainfall. These conditions will become better known in the next 24 hours. A Flood Watch remains in effect through Thursday morning. For more information please visit: - www.weather.gov/gum - www.weather.gov/safety/flood
