ESFGUM This Hydrologic Outlook is for Guam, Rota, Tinian and Saipan. A loosely organized tropical disturbance is centered near a general area east at Fananu, near 9N154E. Moderate to occasionally deep convection is associated with this feature, producing scattered to numerous showers within 150 miles of the centroid axis. Model guidance indicates the system will continue to trek along the weak easterly trades, before slowing in its forward speed and shifting to the northwest, moving across the Marianas as it develops further. Some uncertainty remains regarding potential rainfall impacts, but early estimates indicate this system to bring locally heavy rainfall of 6 to 11 inches across the Marianas. This feature will be monitored closely over the next several days by various agencies, so expected rainfall totals may change. Even so, flash flooding remains likely during the Saturday night through Tuesday time frame. Residents in the Marianas need to closely monitor this developing situation as watches, advisories and warnings could be issued later. If living near streams and rivers, prepare to move items away from stream and river banks. Make sure storm drains nearby are not clogged, especially If living at low-lying areas.
