HLSTAE This product covers eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia **PERIPHERAL RAIN AND WIND IMPACTS ACROSS THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND FROM MAJOR HURRICANE MILTON BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY** NEW INFORMATION --------------- * CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - None * CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS: - A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Dixie, Coastal Franklin, Coastal Jefferson, Coastal Taylor, Coastal Wakulla, Inland Dixie, Inland Taylor, and Lafayette - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Inland Jefferson and Madison * STORM INFORMATION: - About 570 miles south-southwest of Tallahassee or about 540 miles south-southwest of Steinhatchee River - 22.7N 87.5W - Storm Intensity 165 mph - Movement East-northeast or 75 degrees at 9 mph SITUATION OVERVIEW ------------------ At 5 PM EDT, Major Hurricane Milton strengthened back into a category 5 hurricane just north of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is currently moving east-northeastward. While Milton is forecast to weaken as it nears Florida over the next two days, it will still be a dangerous major hurricane when it makes landfall along the west coast of Florida on Wednesday. However, locally we will only have peripheral impacts from wind and rain, and even these impacts have lessened over the last 24 hours as the track has shifted south. Additionally, it will begin to interact with a cold front moving southeast over the Florida Panhandle. This expansion in the wind field will help to increase winds on the northwest side of the circulation. While the probabilities for tropical storm force winds have decreased markedly over the last 24 hours, tropical storm conditions are still likely across the Apalachee Bay coastline. There is lower confidence in these winds across inland areas in the southeast portions of the Florida Big Bend in and east of Jefferson County, Florida but tropical storm watches and warnings remain in place with this advisory. Note, while gusty winds may not reach tropical storm strength across much of the area, they could still hamper recovery efforts from Helene and cause additional damage to weakened trees or structures. The heavy rainfall threat has lessened compared to 24 hours ago given the shifts in track to a more southern landfall location. Current forecast rainfall amounts across the southeast Big Bend are now around 1 to 3 inches of rain, with local amounts potentially higher across the lower Suwannee Valley. This could result in some localized flash flooding. There will be a very sharp cutoff in the higher rainfall amounts on the northwestern side of the Milton so any subtle shifts in track could bring higher, or lower, amounts of rainfall to those who reside along the current gradient of heavy rain. This gradient shifted south this afternoon and is now stretching from roughly Crystal River northeast into Jacksonville, Florida. Tornadoes and significant storm surge are currently not a concern with the forecast track of Milton. However, storm surge will be highly track dependent. Any shifts in the track northward may bring a storm surge threat into the some portions of Apalachee Bay. With strong easterly flow ahead of the storm, there will at least be some potential for minor coastal flooding under 3 feet, mostly along any east-facing beaches, especially from Alligator Point to St Marks Florida. Dangerous marine conditions are also expected with building waves and strengthening winds beginning Wednesday and persisting into Thursday afternoon or evening. This will result in high surf and deadly rip currents along all area beaches for much of the upcoming week. POTENTIAL IMPACTS ----------------- * WIND: Protect against dangerous wind having possible significant impacts across southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts in this area include: - Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored. Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles. - Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several fences and roadway signs blown over. - Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways, and access routes impassable. - Scattered power and communications outages, but more prevalent in areas with above ground lines. Also, protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the coast of the Apalachee Bay extending westwards towards the Indian Pass. Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated. * SURGE: Protect against locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts across the Apalachee Bay. Potential impacts in this area include: - Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore. - Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots could become overspread with surge water. Driving conditions potentially dangerous in places where surge water covers the road. - Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf possibly breaching dunes, mainly in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents. - Minor damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings. Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated. * FLOODING RAIN: Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible extensive impacts across the southeast Florida Big Bend. Potential impacts include: - Heavy rainfall flooding may prompt some evacuations and rescues. - Rivers and tributaries could overflow their banks in some places. Small streams, creeks, and ditches may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may become stressed. - Flood waters could enter several structures within multiple communities. Flood waters may cover some escape routes. Streets and parking lots could become rivers of moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions potentially dangerous. Some road and bridge closures possible. Elsewhere across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia, little to no impact is anticipated. * TORNADOES: Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time across eastern Florida panhandle, Florida Big Bend, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS ---------------------------------- * OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION: Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding. When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain, damaging wind gusts, storm surge, and tornadoes extend well away from the center of the storm. Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes to the forecast. * ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION: - For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov - For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org NEXT UPDATE The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather Service in Tallahassee FL around 11 PM, or sooner if conditions warrant.
