A slowly-developing tropical disturbance, known as JTWC Invest 95W, is centered in the vicinity of 7N164E, north-northeast of Kosrae. At the surface, the latest analysis reveals a sharp surface trough, with perhaps a small closed circulation near a burst of convection. The latest CIMSS tropical vorticity analysis shows vorticity maxima in this area between 850mb and 500mb that is expected to move further west into a more favorable environment for cyclogenesis. Even so, this feature remains largely disorganized in nature. At the moment, little convection is associated directly with this feature, with most of the showers and some thunderstorms concentrated within said trough. This disturbance is expected to develop a much more pronounced center of rotation as early as Sunday, allowing rainbands to intensify along its peripheries to produce worsening conditions at Chuuk. Between 4 and 8 inches of rainfall is expected to fall on Chuuk starting late Sunday through early Tuesday morning. If the system slows in its forward motion and consolidates earlier, rainfall amounts may be even higher. Additionally, strong gusts will be possible with the heavier showers sometime Monday through Tuesday, but uncertainty remains high at this time for more pronounced wind threats. Numerical model guidance indicates 95W will consolidate and intensify through the first half of next week, with most of this development to likely happen once it exits Chuuk State to the northwest across eastern Yap State and/or the Marianas. Residents across Chuuk State should continue to monitor local weather forecasts the next couple of days from the National Weather Service in Guam, and for additional information from your local Weather Service Office and emergency management. Visit weather.gov/gum/PublicForecasts for the latest weather information from the National Weather Service.
