A developing circulation, designated as Invest 95W, is located at 11.2N and 137.1E, or 119 miles north-northwest of Yap. This circulation has become better organized today and is now listed as a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert, which means the formation of a tropical depression is likely during the next 24 hours. The vast majority of the model forecasts now indicate this system will strengthen into a tropical depression as it moves northeast. The forecast track, in general, has been consistent for the better part of a week now, tracking it either though the Marianas, or paralleling the region just to our west. With either scenario (through versus west of the Marianas), the main weather theme will remain the same. In general, periods of heavy rainfall will redevelop through the next 48 to 72 hours. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible. Any heavier shower or thunderstorm may bring wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph with it. Now is the time to secure any loose objects, and please continue to monitor the forecast. Timing: Wednesday through Thursday night Rainfall: 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts possible Winds: Sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph developing, with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible with heavier showers or thunderstorms. Recommendations: Secure loose objects, complete any necessary errands, and continue to monitor the forecast for updates. Doll
